SPECIFYING THE CONSPICUOUS FEATURES OF THE OZONE LAYER DEPLETION FOR PAKISTAN’S ATMOSPHERIC REGION

Authors

  • M.A. K. Yousuf Zai Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan
  • J. Qaumar Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan
  • M.R. K. Ansari Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan

Abstract

Events such as the huge industrial emissions of Chlorofluoro Carbons (CFCs) provide almost visible example of man-made atmospheric pollution and global unbalance of the natural ecology. Among other scientific and socio-economic fallouts from this, the phenomenon of ozone layer depletion (OLD) is particularly disturbing. It has already attracted wide attention throughout the globe by way of 1987 Montreal protocol. This paper looks into the effectiveness of autoregressive model and predicts the menacing influence of the OLD. As such, with reference to the data for stratospheric region of Pakistan, this communication presents the confidence interval for the population mean of OLD for a significant level of probability. Then it considers the estimation of autoregressive model of order one for forecasting time series on monthly basis from 1970 to 1994, by identifying a set of related predictors. Autoregressive technique produces fairly accurate results as compared to the least squared estimate. We also consider the issue of validating the model by displaying predicted and observed data, by residual analysis, and by autocorrelation functions.

References

J.L. Thibodeaux, Environmental Chemo- dynamics, Movement of Chemicals in Air, Water and Soil, J. Wiley, New York, (1996)

M. R. Schoch, L M. Mckinney, Environmental Science, Systems and Solutions, Jones and Bartlett, Tennesee, (1998)

A. Hussain, and J. Quamar, Proc. 5th International Conference of Science Technology & Development in the New Millennium, held at University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan, April, 24- 27 (2000).

J. K. Hammitt, Clim. Change. 30, No. 2: (1995) 125.

K. E., Trenber and J. G. Olson, Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 131 (1991) 249-259.

G. L. J. Manney, W. Waters, M. L.W. Santee, G. D. Read, A Flower,. R. Jarnot, and R. W. Zurek, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, No. 1 (1996) 85.

P. J. Michaels, S. F.Singer, and J. B. Kerr, Science, 264 (1994) 1341.

H. W. Ellsaesser, (Ed.), Global 2000 Revisited, Mankind’s Impact on Spaceship Earth. Paragon House, New York, (1994)

J.E. Dye, P. Drdla, K. Barr, A. Tabazadeh, C. Wilson and K. R. Chan R., Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, No. 15 (1996) 1913.

T. Koop, and K.S. Carslow, Science, 272 (1996) 1638.

X. X. Tie, and G. Brasseur, Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, No. 22 (1995) 3035.

B. Kärcher, M. M. Hirschberg, and P. Fabian, J. Geophys. Res. 101, No. 10 (1996) 15169.

J. W. Maunder, The Human Impact of Climate Uncertainty, Routledge, London, (1999).

A. Bisio, and S. Boots., Encychlopedia of Energy and Environment, J. Wiley, New York, (1997).

R. Garcia, Physics World, April, (1994)

R. P. Wayne, (Ed.), Chemistry of Atmosphere, Oxford University Press, Oxford, (1991).

Y. Jiang, Y. L. Yung, and R. W. Zurek, J. Geophys. Res., 101, No. 4 (1996) 8985.

M. Prather, P Midgley, S. R. Rowland and R. Stolarski, Nature, 381, No. 6583 (1996) 551.

V. G. Gorshkov, Man, Biota, Environment, Pringer, Verlag, Berlin, (1995) 340.

M.A.K. Yousuf Zai and J. Quamar, Indian J. Phys. 75B, No. 4 (2001) 307.

M. A. K. Yousuf Zai and J. Quamar Sing, J. Phys., 1, No. 1 (1998) 69.

S. P. Millard, Environmental Stats for S-Plus, Springer-Verlag, New York, (1998).

R. Bartoszynski, and M. Niewiadomska-Bugaj, Probability and Statistical Inference, Wiley-Interscience, New York, (1996).

S.M. Pandit and S. M. Wu, Time Series and System Analysis with Applications, J. Wiley, New York (1983).

T. Tong, Nonlinear Time Series, A Dynamical System Approach, Clarendon, Oxford, (1990).

T.M. Sugden and T.F. West, Chlorofluoro-carbons in the environment, Ellis Horewood, Chichester, (1985).

C. W. Robert and S. P. Sheo, Ozone in the Free Atmosphere, van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, (1987).

World Meteorological Organization, Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, UNO Report (25), WMO, Geneva, (1991).

Downloads

Published

10-07-2020

How to Cite

[1]
M. K. Yousuf Zai, J. Qaumar, and M. K. Ansari, “SPECIFYING THE CONSPICUOUS FEATURES OF THE OZONE LAYER DEPLETION FOR PAKISTAN’S ATMOSPHERIC REGION”, The Nucleus, vol. 41, no. 1-4, pp. 41–48, Jul. 2020.

Issue

Section

Articles